Table 5 Diagnostic value of the absolute and relative criteria for pancreatic resection from the evidence-based European guidelines 2018 for predicting malignant IPMN. Analysis of the data for the 124 patients with IPMN who underwent surgery, and for the subgroup of 75 patient who duodenopancreatectomy or total pancreatectomy (PT) (shown in italics under each criterion)
Variables | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95%CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | Accuracy (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Absolute criteria | |||||
Solid component | 29% (18–41) | 87% (76–94) | 69% (48–85) | 55% (44–65) | 58% (46–71) |
Whipple/Total PT | 35% | 76% | 70% | 43% | 51% |
Jaundice | 11% (4–21) | 98% (91–99) | 87% (47–99) | 52% (43–61) | 55% (44–68) |
Whipple/Total PT | 15% | 97% | 88% | 42% | 46% |
Mural Nodule | 16% (8–27) | 85% (74–99) | 53% (28–75) | 50% (40–60) | 50% (42–61) |
Whipple/Total PT | 7% | 80% | 34% | 35% | 35% |
MD ≥ 10 mm | 39% (26–51) | 84% (73–91) | 71% (52–84) | 58% (46–68) | 61% (48–79) |
Whipple/Total PT | 48% | 76% | 76% | 48% | 59% |
At least two criteria (n = 20) | 24% (14–36) | 91% (84–97) | 75% (59–91) | 55% (44–64) | 58% (44–67) |
Whipple/Total PT | 31% | 76% | 67% | 41% | 48% |
At least three criteria (n = 9) | 11% (4–21) | 97% (88–96) | 77% (40–97) | 52% (42–61) | 51% (40–60) |
Whipple/Total PT | 16% | 94% | 78% | 41% | 46% |
Relative Criteria | |||||
Cyst ≥ 4 cm (*) | 42% (29–55) | 90% (80–96) | 81% (63–93) | 61% (50–71) | 66% (54–81) |
Whipple/Total PT | 53% | 76% | 78% | 50% | 62% |
MD 5–9.9 mm | 47% (34–60) | 66% (53–77) | 58% (43–72) | 55% (43–67) | 56% (44–71) |
Whipple/Total PT | 35% | 69% | 64% | 40% | 48% |
Acute pancreatitis | 21% (11–36) | 82% (72–91) | 54% (43–66) | 51% (41–61) | 52% (43–64) |
Whipple/Total PT | 16% | 80% | 54% | 38% | 40% |
New onset of diabetes | 3% (0.4–11) | 88% (78–93) | 22% (3–60) | 48% (38–57) | 46% (39–59) |
Whipple/Total PT | 9% | 83% | 45% | 37% | 38% |
Rapid growth rate | 1% (0.3–19) | 83% (72–92) | 37% (15–64) | 48% (38–58) | 47% (36–59) |
Whipple/Total PT | 11% | 90% | 63% | 39% | 42% |
At least two criteria (n = 30) | 30% (19–43) | 82% (70–90) | 63% (43–80) | 54% (43–64) | 56% (45–68) |
Whipple/Total PT | 22% | 63% | 48% | 34% | 38% |
At least three criteria (n = 9) | 14% (5–23) | 100% (94–100) | 100% (63–100) | 54% (44–62) | 57% (45–70) |
Whipple/Total PT | 9% | 100% | 100% | 41% | 44% |